Islands and Bridges

You need to cross a river, from the north shore to the south shore, via a series of 13 bridges and six islands, which you can see in the diagram below. However, as you approach the water, a hurricane passes and destroys some (possibly none/all) of the bridges. If the probability that each bridge gets destroyed is 50%, independently of the others, what is the chance that you will be able to cross the river after all?

SOLUTION

Imagine there is a captain on a ship, who wants to sail through the river from West to East. You can see that he will be able to do this if and only if you are not able to cross the river. However, if you rotate the diagram by 90 degrees, you can also see that the probability that you cross North-South is equal to the probability that he sails West-East, and therefore both probabilities are equal to 50%.

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